Pamella De Leon
Truckload rates kept climbing year over year in Q2 2025, but growth slowed again, with peak season adding further market fluctuations, according to RXO’s The Curve report, a proprietary index measuring performance and macroeconomic indicators in the market.
The report indicated an extension of similar trends from 2023: “A muted demand picture leading to lower freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and a prolonged stable rate environment (though they are increasing on a year-over-year basis).”
The report indicated that spot rates increased 6.5% year over year in Q2 2025, slightly less than the 9.1% in Q1 2025. Contract rates, meanwhile, rose 1.1% year over year, down slightly from 1.4% in Q1.
Seasonal shipping events such as produce season, Memorial Day, CVSA International Roadcheck and Independence Day caused temporary volatility, though rates quickly returned to baseline afterward.
“Though we are in an inflationary rate environment, Q2 was still primarily a shippers’ market,” the report noted.
It also pointed out that carriers continue to feel cost pressures, while shippers had relatively high tender acceptance rates, easy capacity and slight rate increases in their RFPs.
Macroeconomic factors
Tariffs and trade policy continue to be the biggest source of uncertainty, the report noted. Industrial production and imports both declined in the second quarter, which tracks with weaker freight volumes.
Unlike the last inflationary period from 2020 to 2021, surging freight demand drove rates higher. Current macroeconomic outlook seems to be less about strong demand and more about shrinking supply.
“It’s more likely that supply-side constraints (carrier attrition) will likely be the driving force,” the report said.
Any tariff de-escalation could spur increased demand and supply chain volatility during peak season, it added.
Q3 2025 truckload market forecast
As for trends shaping the truckload market, the report pointed out that conditions remain largely unchanged: sluggish freight volumes, little difference between contract and spot rates, fewer Class 8 truck orders, and ongoing carrier job losses.
“The persistence of these low rates, both in contract and spot, is placing an immense amount of pressure on carriers,” the report stated. “If (and likely, when) enough carriers get driven out of the market, it will trigger a rise in spot rates, but the timeline for the flip keeps getting pushed out given weak conditions.”
English language proficiency regulations could also lead to an evident reduction in the overall driver pool and constrain capacity.
Looking ahead, the report noted that RXO expects carrier capacity to continue exiting the market. While contract rates were up modestly year over year in Q2, spot rates are poised to rise faster, eventually surpassing contract rates.
“This divergence will drive volatility as cash-trapped carriers look to increase profitability after a very difficult two years,” the report said.
It said either more exits or a demand uptick would accelerate rate increases.
Spot rates trail contract rates for now, but if they flip in Q3, shippers could face pressure later in the year, it said.
The extent of any inflationary spike, the report pointed out, will depend on tariffs, how shippers and carriers respond, consumer demand, and the strength of peak season.
Conversely, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said in a recent release that there’s no major indication of changes in the truckload market, aside from seasonal bumps and tactics by shippers managing tariffs.
“There are carriers with low-cost structures and steady customers that are negotiating better contracts,” Adamo said, “but in general, there’s a feeling that volumes and rates are stuck. Barring some major event, there’s nothing to suggest that’s going to change any time soon.”
Interviews With Carriers, Drivers, Witnesses Included in Four-Year Plan in Advancement of Crash Causation Program
Noel Fletcher
Advancing a program that stretches back more than 20 years, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has announced plans for a sweeping study of fatal heavy truck crashes with the goal of developing strategies to improve highway safety.
The Crash Causal Factors Program, authorized by Congress under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, will collect data from 2,000 fatal heavy truck crashes across 30 states identified as representative of a national sampling of locations. Data will be collected over the course of two years, with a target start date of early 2026. FMCSA is partnering with state and local agencies as well as the Bureau of Transportation Statistics — which, like FMCSA, is part of the Department of Transportation — to collect the data. The Office of Safety Data and Analysis within BTS will lead the research.
The initial phase is called the Heavy-Duty Truck Study and will center on data collection for crashes involving Classes 7 and 8 trucks. Key data will include crash metrics that adhere to FMCSA state-specific agreements. BTS will supplement this data with anecdotal information gathered in voluntary interviews with carriers, drivers and witnesses following a crash.
“Information gathered during the interviews will provide additional information and context for a more comprehensive understanding of crashes and their causal factors,” according to a Federal Register notice on the CCFP program. BTS aims to conduct five hourlong interviews per crash.
“For each fatal crash, BTS will attempt to interview the heavy-duty truck driver, a representative from the involved motor carrier, the driver of any other involved vehicle, all vehicle occupants and any other persons involved in the crash,” the notice stated. This information will be analyzed to identify whether drivers, vehicles, motor carriers or environmental factors played a role in the crashes.
“Analysis results and findings may be used to inform preventive measures, reduce identified risks and address causal factors of heavy-duty truck crashes,” according to FMCSA.
Public comment on the proposed data collection strategy and alternative methods to gather information are being collected by BTS through Nov. 3.
By the end of 2026, FMCSA plans to complete a design for the study, identify participant states and set final plans for data collection and analysis, plus implementation of confidentiality measures for personal interviews. It also aims to create a database of information.
Data collection is slated to take two years. From there, an analysis phase will be followed by preparation of a report and creation of a public database of anonymized crash data. FMCSA plans to release the report and launch the database by 2029. Partial findings may be released before that.
From 2016 to 2022, fatal crashes involving large trucks and buses in the United States increased 26.4%, according to FMCSA.
The CCFP aims to add to and expand on the earlier Large Truck Crash Causation Study, which was launched in 2001. That earlier study examined 967 crashes involving 1,127 large trucks and 959 non-truck motor vehicles. A total of 251 fatalities and 1,408 injuries were reported. Those crashes occurred from 2001 to 2003 at 24 sites in 17 states.
The goal was to report to Congress a review of causes of commercial vehicle crashes and devise preventive safety measures. The most recent LTCCS report to Congress, available on the program’s website, is dated March 2006. That report noted that while a large amount of descriptive data — including a 28-page driver interview form — was compiled, additional analysis was needed to identify specific crash risk factors. This CCFP aims to update that effort with a broader scope that includes more states, building-block phases of work and creation of the public database.
SUmmarized version of the preparation for cross-examination. Watch it here
Mike Stanton
As we all know, a fleet’s safety rating is an evaluation of whether the fleet is complying with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) safety fitness standard. Fleets can receive one of three ratings from the Department of Transportation — satisfactory, conditional and unsatisfactory. A satisfactory rating is a reflection of a company’s reputation but can also impact insurance costs and the ability to get new business.
The ratings are given following a detailed audit by FMCSA inspectors. They evaluate a number of things including vehicle maintenance records, roadside inspection results, drug and alcohol tests for drivers and more. The purpose of the ratings is to ensure that fleets stay in compliance with federal safety regulations which are designed to reduce the risk of an accident.
Drivers play a key role in whether a carrier is deemed satisfactory and there are several reasons for that.
Drivers are your first line of defense in ensuring that the truck is in top operating condition. They are tasked with competing pre- and post-trip inspections that are used to assess the condition of the truck before it goes on the road and when it comes back to the yard. During these inspections, drivers touch every part of the truck and check off any items they find to be defective. When they find a problem, they then file a Driver Vehicle Inspection Report (DVIR) that details what the issues are. The DVIR is then turned into fleet management who is responsible for seeing that the problem gets corrected before the truck goes back on the road.
Drivers also are responsible for ensuring that cargo is properly loaded and secured even if they did not do the actual loading and they are required to check the security of the load during the pre- and post-trip inspections and periodically during transit.
There are also strict drug and alcohol rules that govern drivers and fleets. These are mandated by DOT to have a random driver drug and alcohol testing program.
All this means that the priority has to be placed on making sure drivers are well trained and have the support they need to shoulder this big responsibility. If fleet managers expect their drivers to have safety as a top priority, they better demonstrate their own commitment to safety. They can do this by making sure that issues raised on DVIRs are addressed immediately whether the fleet does its own maintenance or outsources it. Drivers need to know that their input is taken seriously when it comes to the conditions of the vehicles they operate.
In addition, fleet managers should periodically conduct training refresher courses on the proper way to complete a pre- or post-trip inspection as well as on proper cargo securement techniques. And there should be periodic reminders about safe driving practices including the fleet’s policy on distracted driving.
Drivers do more than ensure that loads get delivered on time. They are a key component of safe fleet operations. Make sure you are giving your drivers the tools and support they need to ensure you are a DOT Satisfactory Carrier. You can’t achieve that status with them.
SJ Munoz
With efforts to implement autonomous vehicles increasing, where does safety factor in?
Missy Cummings, director of the Autonomy and Robotics Center at George Mason University, joined Trucking with OOIDA to discuss the topic.
“If not designed correctly, automation or autonomy can lead to some catastrophic events,” Cummings said. “While I was a fighter pilot in the 1990s and working with some of the most advanced automation, there was a problem with mode confusion then.”
Cummings’ recent research took aim at claims by autonomous vehicle developer Waymo, which has said its vehicles are safer than human drivers.
“I wanted to take a fresh look at the data that was coming to light through NHTSA and the California Waymo program,” Cummings said. “When you look at that data, it’s actually quite clear that Waymo’s claims are not true. They are more on par with rideshare drivers, who are having accidents four-to-six times more often than your average driver. That’s pretty concerning. But it’s not a direct and fair comparison. Waymo uses remote operators, unlike the average driver. So it’s not really fair to compare. I wanted people to understand this. We should not start making these comparisons, because they are not the same.”
The data did reveal some conclusive evidence.
“On any given month, Waymo is experiencing almost two times more rear-end collisions than your average driver,” Cummings said. “It’s quite clear there is a problem in self-driving cars with the computer vision system. Even (with) their augmented sensors like LiDAR, they will see things that aren’t there. This causes aggressive hard-braking maneuvers, much harder than your average driver is making. It’s one thing for a Toyota Sentra to slam on its brakes going 65 mph, but completely different for a tractor-trailer to do it. If we can’t figure out how to address the phantom braking problem, self-driving trucking is DOA.”
Artificial intelligence is not reasoning or thinking like a human, Cummings added.
“This is why you see videos of driverless vehicles going the wrong way down the street,” she said. “They struggle to get out of the situation they’re in. Fortunately, these types of instances are happening at a much lower rate than things like phantom braking.”
The goal for Cummings in her research is to find the sources of the problems and a viable solution.
“When the training models are developed, human annotators will typically cut off the tip so that the true shape does not get learned,” Cummings said. “The jury is still out on how much we can improve the training, or are we just going to have to use a different kind of sensor? It’s hard to make these technologies scale to operate at low and high speeds. I think Waymo has done a good job of showing how operations can be conducted, particularly at suburban speeds. I don’t want to take away from them. But it’s not clear that their solution is going to scale for highways.”
Cummings pointed to the situation with Aurora’s autonomous vehicle rollout as evidence.
“That (Aurora) failed rollout is exactly what I’m talking about,” Cummings said. I’d like to see this technology succeed. I run a robotics lab. I’m here to make the technology work. It’s not clear the theoretical underpinnings are going to work. If we can’t make sure these vehicles can detect object problems at highway speeds and act accordingly, self-driving trucking is never going to work. It’s also going to severely limit the self-driving car.”
